Guotai Junan (601211) Interim Review: Comprehensive strength to maintain leading self-employed results

Guotai Junan released the semi-annual report for 2019. In the first half of 2019, it achieved operating income of 14.1 billion yuan, a continuous growth of 23%; net profit attributable to mothers was 50 billion, an increase of 25%; ROE4 in the first half of 2019.

03%, a year increase of 0.

76PCT; net assets attributable to mothers amounted to 128.8 billion yuan, an increase of 4 from the end of the previous year.

35%.

Treasury business: 1, outstanding performance in self-operated business.

The self-operated business in the first half of 2019 shined, which was mainly due to the investment results of solid income and special account investment by the securities company.

Behind the surge in self-employed income is the continued rise in the fair value of tradable financial assets, mainly due to the increase in fixed income bonds in inactive markets.

At the same time, the supplement of other comprehensive income was mainly due to the increase in the fair value of the special account investment of the securities company, reversing the gradual decline last year.

2. Credit business has its own pressure.

The risk control of the stock pledge business continued to strengthen, and the scale continued to 北京桑拿洗浴保健 drop.

In the first half of the year, gains on stock pledges, gains on repurchase of financial assets under resale, and gains on capital invested earlier.

The performance guarantee ratio has increased significantly compared with the beginning of the year, and the decline in the indicator income is smaller than the decrease in the capital flow. It is said that the quality interest rate has increased.

At the end of the first half of the year, the territorial prosperity of the two territories continued to grow, and the industry continued to maintain a high level of stability.

Looking forward to the direction of innovation in the second half of the year, it is worth looking forward to the science and technology board’s transfer of securities business.

3. Steady progress was made in non-directional transactions, and commodity revenue doubled.

In the first half of the year, the commodity sales revenue doubled, and the company worked hard to create an “excellent financial asset dealer”.

Channel business: 1. Retail brokers stay ahead.

In the first half of the year, channel business revenue was 5.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and revenue accounted for 37%.

Of which brokerage business income 31.

500 million, an annual increase of 24%.

2. Investment banking business looks forward to a bumper harvest.

Investment banking income 10.

600 million US dollars, flat for one year, the underwriting of equity was less than expected.

It is expected that the company has applied for 8 science and technology board sponsored projects, and some equity projects are in incubation, and benefit from the implementation of the new refinancing rules. It is expected that the investment banking business will usher in a bumper period in the second half of the year.

3. Asset management business turned to active management.

In the first half of the year, the revenue from asset management business increased by 12.

7%, management fees and performance compensation are evenly divided.

The scale of active management increased by 30% from the end of the previous year, and its proportion increased to 53%. The capacity of active management has steadily improved.

Investment suggestion: At present, it is estimated that there are rare trading investment opportunities in the securities sector, and the market’s risk aversion sentiment caused by external factors is gradually increasing. The beta attributes of the current securities sector are obvious.

Maintain a highly recommended -A rating.

The outlook for the market outlook is stable and good, the company’s industry portfolio and comprehensive strength steadily rank among the top three in the first industry. It is optimistic that the company’s subsequent development benefits from the industry development trend, the company’s resource endowment and relatively high self-operated scale.

The company’s 19/20/21 net profit is expected to be 9.1 billion / 11.8 billion / 13.9 billion, an increase of +36% / + 29% / + 19%.

We give company 1.

9 times 19-year PB estimate, target price is 26.

70 yuan, space + 56%.

Risk Warning: The equity market has changed dramatically, industry innovation policies have exceeded expectations, regulatory policies have clearly become more severe, and competition in the industry has intensified