Xingyu Co., Ltd. (601799): ADB’s headlights have made a breakthrough;

Recent situation of the company We organized the research of Xingyu shares and exchanged views with the participants.

The current contradiction corresponds to 25 of 2020.

5 times price-earnings ratio.

Looking at the horizontal comparison, it is cost-effective.

Re-recommendation: Comment on the continuous optimization of the product structure, bringing both volume and profit.

Since September, FAW-Volkswagen sales have accelerated (September-November sales growth rates were +14% / + 21 respectively.

4% / + 28.

1%), the new company’s contribution from the combined company, we expect the company to continue its strong growth in the third quarter in the fourth quarter.

Into 2020, the company’s incremental projects include: Audi A6 taillights, Sagitar headlights taillights, Nissan Xuanyi headlights taillights (overseas production in 20 years), Magotan (8.

5th generation) headlights and tail lights.

The beneficiary product structure continues to be optimized. We expect the company’s net profit margin to further increase.

The construction of production capacity has been advanced in an orderly manner; orders have been received for the Serbian plant.

Capital expenditures in 2020 will be used to build Changzhou 佛山桑拿网 Intelligent Industrial Park Phase 1-3 (a total of 5 phases are planned), with a total investment of 800 million yuan.

Overseas, the Serbian factory started construction for the first time in the year and plans to invest 60 million euros.

Due to the simple structure of the factory building, the company expects that the construction of the factory will be fast, and it will be officially put into production in 2022.

In the state where the plant is not yet under construction, the company has already obtained a taillight project, which reflects the recognition and trust of the company by overseas OEMs.

Customer development + product upgrade two-wheel drive.

In terms of customer development, the company actively expanded Japanese and luxury customers.

In the first half of the year, Highlander and its sister-杭州夜生活网type supporting projects were successfully obtained, which further increased the penetration of the Japanese system and gradually won the Mercedes-Benz GLC taillight project.

We expect that the subsequent Serbian plant will enhance the company’s ability to integrate acquisitions.

In terms of new products, the company has recently won orders for ADB (adaptive driving beam and adaptive high-beam system) for two models of Volkswagen. The unit price is twice as expensive as ordinary LEDs. Product upgrades continue to increase the value of supporting bicycles.

High-quality subdivision track; medium and long-term space is vast.

We think that the headlights are one of the best segmented tracks in auto parts. Taking Magotan as an example, the value of the headlights of the whole car has reached 3500-4000 yuan.

We assume that the average vehicle value of the follow-up lamp industry is 3,000 yuan, and the annual sales volume of domestic passenger cars is 25 million. The market size of the lamp industry will reach 75 billion. We believe that the company’s market share is expected to gradually increase to 20% and the corresponding revenue is 15 billion.The net interest rate of the United States dollar, neutral is estimated to be 15%, and the net profit volume will reach more than US $ 2 billion.

It is estimated that the current budget corresponds to 2020 25.

5 times price-earnings ratio.

We maintain our 2019 and 2020 net profit forecasts at 7, respectively.

6 billion and 9.

9.6 billion.

Taking into account the estimated switching, we have raised our target price by 20% from RMB90 to RMB108 (upside space of 17%), corresponding to a 30x P / E ratio in 2020.

Risks New orders fell short of expectations; revenue and net profit growth indicators.