Qibin Group (601636): Triple introduction opens up future growth space

Event: The company released the “Strategic Plan for Medium and Long-term Development in 2019-2024” and strives to achieve operating income of more than 10 billion yuan in 2021 and operating income of more than 13.5 billion yuan in 2024. In 2021, the return on net assets will not decrease in the same industryThe benchmark company’s 80th level; by the end of 2024, the float production capacity scale will increase by more than 30% compared with 2018, and the energy-saving glass capacity scale will increase by more than 200%. At the same time, the company plans to roll out 6 phases of employee holdings from 2019 to 2024.Stock plan, each phase of employee stock ownership plan is independent of each other, the total size is expected to be 1.

2.5 billion shares; in addition, the company launched a business partner shareholding plan, the shareholding plan is expected to not exceed 50 people, the actual controller Mr. Yu Qibing passed the assessment of 2021 and 2024, the business situation was awarded to partners in two batches of no more than 100 million sharesThe lock-up period of the company’s shares is not less than 48 months, and the lock-up period of the second phase is not less than 12 months. The duration of the plan is 10 years.

Opinion: The medium and long-term development plan opens the way for future growth.

In the future, the company may expand its float production capacity through mergers and acquisitions or self-built capacity, and strive to increase the float production capacity by 30% or more at the end of 2024 compared to 2018, which is equivalent to a net increase of approximately 5,300 tons / day in the next five years to ensure industry market share.In the background of the industry’s supplementary increase in production capacity, the company’s expansion against the trend reflects the company’s strong competitiveness and confidence in long-term development; meanwhile, the production capacity of energy-saving glass continues to expand. In the first half of 2019, Guangdong and Zhejiang energy-saving 北京夜网 bases have achieved a profit of 1,000.With more than 10,000 yuan, the market is in good condition. Through the Hunan Energy Conservation Base and Guangdong and Zhejiang Energy Conservation Phase II, the energy-saving glass will become the company’s new performance growth point in the future, and the extension of the industrial chain will give full play to upstream and downstream advantages.

Launched employee stock ownership plan to fully mobilize employee enthusiasm.

The company’s first phase of employee stock ownership plan does not exceed 721.

80,000 shares, 6064 shares from the previous repurchase.

50,000 shares, the number of grants does not exceed 416, covering middle management personnel, core technical personnel and other important employees, the grant price is 1.

9 yuan / share (for the previous repurchase price of 3.

8 yuan / share 1/2), and the rolling 6 period will be extended to 2024; we believe that this employee stock ownership plan covers most of the company’s employees, and binding the interests of employees with the interests of the company will fully mobilize the enthusiasm of employees,It reflects the company’s confidence in future development.

Introduced a business partner mechanism to deeply bind new members.

The company launched a business partner mechanism, transforming the “manager” into a “cooperator”, which reflects the actual controller’s recognition of the new three years’ operating results and capabilities; gradually granting in-depth restraint to management through distribution and further explorationEmerging potential.

The assessment of basic financial indicators is based on the following: the operating income in 2016-2018 is lower than the base, and the compound income of operating income in 2021 and 2024 is not less than 10%, and the return on net assets is not less than the benchmark of the same industry.Enterprise 80th level; equivalent to a revenue base of approximately 76.

400 million, the compound revenue growth rate in the next five years is not less than 10%, and the return on net assets is in the top 20% of the industry.

We believe that in the context of cyclical fluctuations, this requires the company to maintain stable growth and maintain a high level of profitability, which will inevitably prompt the company to accelerate the pace of capacity expansion, further control costs and expenses, and the company’s future development can beperiod.

This period of price increases continues, and high profit expectations continue into early Ming.

From our tracking data, apparent demand in August increased by about 9% per year, exceeding the growth rate of production (5.

1%), indicating that demand is still strong, and the “Golden Nine Silver and Ten Years” season is more prosperous; the supply side is affected by environmental pressure from Shahe, and it is expected that 3-4 kiln-age gradual production lines will be discontinued;Inspection, does not rule out production line suspension; Third, the industry to non-standard capacity, overall capacity improvement, while considering a large number of kiln-aged gradual production lines, and then the production capacity is likely to shrink; therefore, the price increase in the peak season is more sustainable, and the short-term soda ash price fluctuationLarge, corporate profits quickly pick up, if Shahe shuts down production more than expected, the price elasticity coefficient.

We believe that the company’s performance growth in the third and fourth quarters is highly deterministic, underestimated and may have high dividends, and it is full of upward flexibility.

Investment suggestion: The company’s partner mechanism, employee shareholding plan and medium- and long-term expansion plan will gradually open up future growth space.

For the time being 19-19, the company’s EPS is 0.

48, 0.

53, 0.

6 yuan, corresponding to the current PE estimates are 7 respectively.

6, 7, 6 times, with a target price of 4.

8 yuan.

Risk warning: production capacity resumes beyond expectations; raw fuel prices rise more than expected; real estate continues to fluctuate